Thursday, September 17, 2009

Hot Topic: H1N1 Snapshot : BC September 14

14 September; school is back in, and infections begin to rise. BC stats for this week include:

  • 865 confirmed H1N1 cases
  • 48 hospitalized due to H1N1
  • 5 deaths.

(facts found at BCCDC FluWatch, ILI Watch, and Authority Bulletins)

As one dives into the spreadsheets and graphs, a picture begins to make sense beyond the obvious. Although children between the ages of 10 and 19 have the highest number of positive cases, when taking into account they were also the most extensively tested this week (possibily due to parental concerns upon sickness following return to school), it makes sense that the most positives were found in this demographic. Remember, testing of mild cases is now discouraged in otherwise healthy adults.

What concerns me from this weeks picture is that those healthy adults(20-39) seem to be the hardest hit, and most hospitalized. Usually the flu preys on "weak" populations, those with other conditions, the old, the very young, or in vulnerable states such as pregnancy. H1N1 has almost been taking a spanish flu like approach instead; the majority of hospitalized patients in this bulletin were adults or young adults.

As well, new this week is the magic percent of known positive cases upon which WHO suggests schools are to close: *drum roll* The magic number is: one percent. That means if a school of 700 has seven ill students, WHO suggests closing. That said, the Public Health Agency of Canada promptly replied that unless the severity of the pandemic gets a lot worse, or massive numbers of children fall ill, it is unlikely they will activate school closures. (http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2009/09/11/h1n1-school-close-who.html.

Still no vaccine available in Canada, not even for health care workers.

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